I created an NBA Model
A few weeks ago I decided I wanted to attempt to build an NBA Model that would give me player projections for each player along with team totals to help find value when betting spreads and totals. I take into account player stats along with opponent defensive rankings against each position in each Fanduel scoring category. I also run 10,000 game simulations for each matchup.
Example (IND vs NY tonight):
I have it automatically boosting or deducting by a certain % depending on opponent ranking in each scoring category.
Today I did a full run-through of coming up with my own projections and then comparing them to RG’s. I couldn’t believe the results, without adjusting anything, my model is only off RG’s overall projections by an average 0.67 FANTASY POINTS PER PLAYER!!!!!
While it doesn’t ultimately mean anything, the fact that I built a model that is only off 0.67 fantasy points per player compared to the DFS leader in projections and analysis(RG) is pretty insane.
I will continue to test and see how my projections compare but I’d say we are off to a good start. I will start sending out projections here for PREMIUM MEMBERS ONLY and in the Discord group for my NBA peeps. DM on Instagram to get on board!
Also if I can find a way to make this Excel file public, I will for my premium peeps =)
Here is a sneak preview: